He saw all that coming. The Rebellion, overthrowing of the Mad King, the rape and murder of Elia, the Red Keep and his children’s bodies. Lyanna’s death and birth of Jon. Not only he saw that coming, he helped it to come to pass, if only indirectly.
“I looked for you on the Trident,” Ned said to them. “We were not there,” Ser Gerold answered. “Woe to the Usurper if we had been,” said Ser Oswell.
And the conversation continues like that for a while: had you been at Aerys’ side, he might have still ruled the Seven Kingdoms. Let’s look again at the fact we all know too well: had the three Kingsguards been at Rhaegar’s side on the Trident, things most likely would have turned out differently. So, why were they not there? Because Rhaegar ordered them. Typical fan’s thinking here is: Lyanna and Jon were so important to him, that he even risked not taking them with him and ordered to protect Lyanna. Quite a few of us had noticed: the protection did not work in the end and couldn’t have worked in the first place. Three knights can not protect against a kingdom. What is Rhaegar’s reason then? He didn’t want the Kingsguards to be on the Trident, because he didn’t want them on the Trident so he could lose.
Think about it not so much from the angle of who did what but the reason GRRM needs this conversation. “Woe to the Usurper if we had been,” said Ser Oswell. What else is the reason for this scene? To show their bravery and honor? Sure, but they could have died fighting at the Trident. It’s not really about them, it’s about Rhaegar – he didn’t need them at the war, precisely for the reason that they would have helped.
About killings of Rhaegar’s wife and children we read:
He [Ser Armory] found her hiding under her father’s bed, as if she believed Rhaegar could still protect her. Princess Elia and the babe were in the nursery a floor below.
Ser Amory dragged Princess Rhaenys out from under her father’s bed and stabbed her to death.
The scene, a little girl hiding under her dead father’s bed, is already quite sad. But how much does it actually add to the event or the overall story? Why would it remotely matter where she was hiding? Consider now that Rhaegar knew of this outcome: his actions knowingly caused that outcome. She kept clinging to her memories of him, while in fact it was his decision in the first place that she and her brother and her mother must die. If true, that adds a significant dimension to the story.
In Old Griff’s chapter in ADwD he reminisces about his failures at the time of Robert’s Rebellion. How he didn’t capture Robert, but somebody else could. Well, he didn’t do that because of who he was. There is no indication that he would have done things differently now. He was not the type that burns a town alive to capture one man. But who appointed him to his post of King’s Hand? Probably the Mad King did, but Rhaegar did nothing to interfere. It is hard to believe that Rhaegar couldn’t covertly influence the decisions and couldn’t install somebody else had he really wanted. One could argue that the Mad King was, well, mad, but his madness was known and quite controllable. If Aerys did everything to oppose his son’s wishes, then all Rhaegar had to do was to show admiration and satisfaction for Jon Connigton’s candidacy. The fact is that Tywin could have crushed the Rebellion, the relations between him and Aerys were unlikely to be beyond repair had Rhaegar bothered. And if not Tywin, there were enough ruthless or simply experienced people around to become King’s Hand. But Jon Connington was chosen, age 22 or so.
How will this play out in the books? Will Jon Connington ever understand that he failed because Rhaegar set him up to fail? Or is he simply a literary device, a tool to learn about Rhaegar’s actions and motivations at the time of the Rebellion? Either way when we read his chapter, we have a sense of doom – things were going badly for reasons ‘beyond anybody’s control’, because somehow they had to. Sometime, I attribute it to the end of the world theme – gods decided that it is time for mortals to die and that’s it. But it is not either-or, it is both: the end of the world is coming and Rhaegar ushers it in. Knowingly or not.
More examples wouldn’t convince you. Simply remember Rhaegar’s actions, and more importantly inactions, and ask: if you want to stop those terrible things from happening, would you behave this way? Suppose we look at Rhaegar’s actions rationally and expect him to be plotting to win the Throne. Well. He never indicated any desire for power. The Throne? He was the heir to the Throne. The WoIaF pretends to accuse Rhaegar of plotting with Starks, but what did his action accomplish:
Brandon Stark, the heir to Winterfell, had to be restrained from confronting Rhaegar at what he took as a slight upon his sister’s honor, for Lyanna Stark had long been betrothed to Robert Baratheon, Lord of Storm’s End. Eddard Stark, Brandon’s younger brother and a close friend to Lord Robert, was calmer but no more pleased.
Certainly getting Starks on his side politically or militarily wasn’t the plan. The traditional explanation for that is his sudden desperate love for Lyanna. We discussed that in Part 1. And here is one more quote:
The crowning of the Stark girl, who was by all reports a wild and boyish young thing with none of the Princess Elia’s delicate beauty …
Even if it is a sudden love, is kidnapping, pretended or not, the best way to go about it? You would say that he was so madly in love that he didn’t know what he was doing. We discussed that in Part 1, and again: he plotted the tournament before meeting Lyanna. He knew ‘there must be another one; the dragon must have three heads’ before meeting Lyanna. Then, he sends just three Kingsguards with Lyanna. Enough to make a difference on the Trident. Not nearly enough to ‘protect’ Lyanna. Somehow one of the knights has Dawn with him, a sword made from a fallen star. With all his ‘love madness’ somehow Rhaegar didn’t forget to arrange that little detail.
Here is the end of the ‘sad but quite likely’ part: For whatever reason, Rhaegar decided that all these things must happen. Maybe for a very ‘noble’ reason: save the world or something, you know. GRRM puts it in his (and classical, remember Dostoevsky) traditional dilemma: Suppose it was for the benefit of the world. Then think about Rhaenys hiding under her father’s bed. It is the same theme that we hear in Melisandre’s promise: it is all going to be worth it. All these murders, plotting and betrayal – it will all be worth it. (Hint: No, it won’t.)
Let's not forget how he intentionally leaved Jaime with his father. Although Jaime begged him not to. If actually fighting meant so much for Jaime, why alienate him by purposefully leaving him behind? Even if Rhaegar didn't know about Jaime likely actions in the wildfire plot, why angry a potential powerful ally? And more importantly, why upset him and leave Jaime with Aerys at the same time?
The day had been windy when he said farewell to Rhaegar, in the yard of the Red Keep. The prince had donned his night-black armor, with the three-headed dragon picked out in rubies on his breastplate. “Your Grace,” Jaime had pleaded, “let Darry stay to guard the king this once, or Ser Barristan. Their cloaks are as white as mine.”
Fact: Rhaegar is obsessed with prophecies. Maybe for a good reason, for the good of the world, good prophecies – but he is very much into prophecies. About a ‘Messiah’ of sort being born, Prince who was Promised, Azor Ahai – basically about birth of a savior, a hero, a god, somebody important. We don’t really know what prophecies Rhaegar follow – certainly something else beyond ‘There will come a day’, because we read about salt, smoke, etc. Our sources are only indirect (Barristan, Jon Connington, etc.). It is possible that among prophecies Rhaegar needed to fulfil there was something about a child without mother or farther, born posthumously (Rhaegar died before Jon's birth and Lyanna's death apparently happened at Jon's birth).
Somehow he felt he must produce three heirs and one of them would be The-Prince-that-was-Promised. The conversation between Barristan, Daenerys and Jorah, that started with Arthur etc., it comes to:
Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him.
What did he find? We don't know. What we do know is that suddenly he trains to become really good at swordsmanship. Why? How does he actually use his martial arts skills? It didn't help him on the Trident. The only time those skills mattered plot-wise was when he won the Harrenhal tourney. Which resulted in his marriage to Lyanna, etc. It's not a stretch to say that the prophecies were about some kind of child. He knew he had to produce it and even other actions he took, like martial art training, were with this big ultimate goal in mind. Be the father of Prince-who-was-promised.