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General idea: There is some kind of conspiracy between Rhaegar and Arthur related to Harrenhal tournament. Read the last Barristan chapter of ADwD, The Kingbreaker. GRRM puts a flashback into the middle of this chapter (not otherwise related thematically - the chapter is about arresting Hizdahr). It doesn’t fit there very naturally (although not as terrible as some of the Robert Rebellion recollections from the first book, where they looked completely out of place – remember the conversation between Robert and Eddard about Jaime on the Iron Throne; no way those two would have talked in that manner in those circumstances). The unnaturalness of this insertion only underscores its importance:
The Red Keep had its secrets too. Even Rhaegar. The Prince of Dragonstone had never trusted him as he had trusted Arthur Dayne. Harrenhal was proof of that. The year of the false spring.
Martin, George R. R.. A Dance with Dragons (A Song of Ice and Fire, Book 5) (p. 878). Random House Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
You read the next paragraphs and have no idea what secrets and how Arthur is related to all of it. There is nothing about Arthur in that particular memory. Then why ‘Rhaegar had secrets’? Why Arthur? How Harrenhal was a proof of Rhaegar confiding in Arthur? The only explanation I see is that GRRM really needs us to know that something was going on between Arthur and Rhaegar related to Harrenhal. And that ‘something’ might have been Arthur fixing the fight with Rhaegar to let Rhaegar win.
Another strange sentence is:
… his fair lady [Ashara] had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well.
What man? If we suggest Barristan, the next sentence disproves it immediately; Ashara, to Barristan’s own knowledge, couldn’t have possibly considered him her man.
She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings.
If by ‘her man’ we would understand Eddard Stark, according to a rumor of love between the two, then how Eddard Stark dishonored anything or anybody at Harrenhal tournament? Westeros.org, https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Ashara_Dayne, seems to agree that this bit is unclear:
Barristan believes that Ashara was dishonored by someone at Harrenhal.
The same source mentions no husband or fiancé of Ashara. The only explanation I see is ‘the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal’, the man she grieved about enough to possibly kill herself is Arthur, her brother. It’s not Barristan, it’s not Eddard. Who else? Then what did Arthur do? My guess is he yielded to Rhaegar too obviously or let Barristan and Ashara suspect that he fixed the round between him and Rhaegar.
I finally found the answer whether Arthur fought Rhaegar at that tourney. It is in the ‘Eddard in prison’ chapter of AGoT:
The crown prince wore the armor he would die in: gleaming black plate with the three-headed dragon of his House wrought in rubies on the breast. A plume of scarlet silk streamed behind him when he rode, and it seemed no lance could touch him. Brandon fell to him, and Bronze Yohn Royce, and even the splendid Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning.
Martin, George R. R.. A Game of Thrones (A Song of Ice and Fire, Book 1) (Kindle Locations 10553-10555). Random House Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
Again, strangely Barristan remembers that Rhaegar defeated four members of Kingsguard at that tournament. Eddard remembers three people and only one of them a member of Kingsguard. Why Eddard doesn’t remember the other three? He knew about them, and just a paragraph ago he remembers them:
He remembered Jaime Lannister, a golden youth in scaled white armor, kneeling on the grass in front of the king’s pavilion and making his vows to protect and defend King Aerys. Afterward, Ser Oswell Whent helped Jaime to his feet, and the White Bull himself, Lord Commander Ser Gerold Hightower, fastened the snowy cloak of the Kingsguard about his shoulders. All six White Swords were there to welcome their newest brother.
Martin, George R. R.. A Game of Thrones (A Song of Ice and Fire, Book 1) (Kindle Locations 10549-10552). Random House Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
Elsewhere we read that Aerys the same day sent Jaime to King’s Landing, so Jaime didn’t participate in the tournament. More likely whoever the other three members who fought Rhaegar were, they were equal or better jousters than Yohn Royce, but Eddard doesn’t remember them. He also remembers Arthur as ‘splendid’: no recollection of dishonesty (which perhaps wasn’t there to begin with – I discuss a theory), but no sadness or anger in that memory of Arthur either (which should have been, one could argue). On several occasions Eddard remembers Arthur with apparent respect or sadness, but no anger, sense of betrayal or any of that sort. Which I would gladly take as the proof that all this ‘Arthur doing Rhaegar’s mad bidding’ is a bunch of nonsense. But:
My explanation for that would be a change in plans or an oversight on GRRM’s part. What matters is we are not seeing a complete consistent picture of the Tourney at Harrenhal.
Let us ask why even the beauty’s laurel was a crown of winter roses. It seems very fitting in retrospect that it was, as it was bestowed on Lyanna. But the crown was prepared before the tournament, wasn’t it? And the organizers couldn’t possibly know the winner beforehand? Or did they? Well, an innocent explanation is of course that the tournament took place shortly after a winter, possibly there were no other flowers available. (What are ‘winter roses’ anyway? Are there RL roses with blue petals?) On the other hand, the False Spring lasted for three months, enough time for ‘normal’ roses to bloom, perhaps. In the very recollection of Eddard I quoted we read about Jaime ‘kneeling on the grass’. Other descriptions of Harrenhal tournament also left me with impression that spring was in full swing (maybe wrong impression, I haven’t collected the evidence on that).
Looking at Arthur's alleged actions, again. He might have acted dishonorably, if he let Rhaegar win against him at Harrenhal. Whether he did is debatable. The sequence of Rhaegar vs. Arthur looks like that: Rhaegar loses to Arthur at an earlier tourney, then at Storm’s End (I believe) Rhaegar and Arthur are tied (twelve lances are broken), then at Harrenhal Rhaegar wins. One can read it as Rhaegar trying to ‘learn’ how to beat Arthur fair and square. Or Rhaegar realizing that it is impossible to beat Arthur fair and square with any certainty, in a situation when he has to win¸ and simply asking or ordering Arthur.
Then, here is this interesting passage from A Storm of Swords, the first Daenerys chapter:
“Viserys used to talk about his [AD’s] wondrous white blade. He said Ser Arthur was the only knight in the realm who was our brother’s peer.” Whitebeard bowed his head. “It is not my place to question the words of Prince Viserys.”
It looks like Barristan wants to disagree. Disagree on what? The last statement made is about Arthur Dayne and Rhaegar being peers – in chivalry, martial arts. (Clearly not in birth or status – martial arts, tournaments is the most likely sense.) Barristan kind of disagrees that they were equal. Would he mean to say that Rhaegar was better? He would have said that – why not to say it to Rhaegar’s sister. So if Rhaegar is not better and not equal, then what? It looks like the meaning of this exchange is to imply that Ser Arthur was better than Rhaegar. Ser Barristan is not afraid to tell the truth to rulers, so why doesn’t he tell that to Daenerys? Because the reason for what he believes is complicated and he is not even sure himself, there is no way he could convince Daenerys. It is very consistent with Barristan suspecting that Rhaegar was not as good, considering Harrenhal tournament an intentional surrender by Ser Arthur, but having no way of proving it. Without Harrenhal the count is one win for Arthur and a draw – combined with everything else, obvious talents in sword fight, etc., nobody would have considered Arthur and Rhaegar equal.
Now, why GRRM puts it in the book? How it matters who was better: Arthur or Rhaegar? (Well, for many readers, those who love the books for martial arts and knights and swords – it is important. But for majority and, I would guess, for GRRM, it doesn’t.) The only significance I can assign to it is the tournament at Harrenhal. Isn’t it suspicious that equal or better fighter, Ser Arthur, is reliably defeated by Rhaegar? By the person behind the tournament and whose actions at the end of the tournament decided the fate of Westeros?
After that another rather strange exchange follows:
“Ser Jorah named Rhaegar the last dragon once. He had to have been a peerless warrior to be called that, surely?”
OK, there are quite a few things GRRM wants us to ignore. ‘The last dragon’ is supposed to imply, unambiguously ‘a peerless warrior’. Hmm... where is the ‘last’ in ‘a peerless warrior’? What about dragon? A page before that Daenerys reveals that she has heard about Ser Arthur:
> “The Sword of the Morning!” said Dany, delighted.
It is worth noting that for her the most important thing about Ser Arthur is the sword he wielded. Nevertheless, she has heard of him. AD was never connected with dragons or Targaryens (on the level that Daenerys could have used or would have reliably used.) So, how does ‘the last dragon’ translate into ‘a peerless warrior’?
First, we are supposed to believe in awesomeness of Jorah Mormont, the great classifier and master of name-giving: Ser Jorah named Rhaegar the last dragon once.
Then, Daenerys makes a very ‘logical’ conclusion: ‘the last dragon’ is pretty much equivalent in common tongue to ‘a peerless warrior’. Daenerys – who is the last dragon as far as she knows – who hasn’t held a sword or done any martial arts – somehow she is supposed to equate ‘the last dragon’ with ‘a peerless warrior’?
Has the absurdity of that occurred to GRRM? I argue that it has, and still he pushes it in in the books. Why? Because of the importance of that. Because of his writing style when one of the most important characters, Rhaegar, doesn’t have a Point-of-View. The readers, us, are supposed to receive well-measured doses of information about him: some information, but not too much. At every stage we are supposed to believe A while suspecting B. What is it, that we are supposed to suspect but not allowed to know? The role of Rhaegar? Clearly he is important. Why? Being of Jon’s father? This is rather obvious: GRRM himself famously used it on D&D as not-an-idiot test. Why Arthur Dayne? Why tournament of Harrenhal implications?
I argue: because of Rhaegar’s actions at Harrenhal are crucial to understanding his character. The conversation continues in this very direction:
“I have seen a hundred tournaments and more wars than I would wish, and however strong or fast or skilled a knight might be, there are others who can match him. A man will win one tourney, and fall quickly in the next.”
Read it knowing GRRM’s interests: football. Giants and Jets. And above them all, the Patriots. What he is saying is this: yes, there are favorites. But what does it tell us if somehow the winner in a game is known? Even Patriots can fall. “Anyone can be killed” – © Arya Stark. And yet Rhaegar organizes a competition, makes sure the prize for it is a bouquet of blue roses, guarantees that everyone (Starks, really) would participate, and then somehow wins it. With huge implications for him and the story? The game was rigged – that’s what we are supposed to conclude. Rhaegar organized the tournament – fact. Rhaegar won the tournament – fact. Rhaegar apparently planned on winning the tournament – fact. Rhaegar couldn’t have possibly known with certainty if he would defeat Ser Arthur in a fair fight – fact. That’s what Barristan is telling us: there are so many random factors:
A change in the wind may bring the gift of victory.
The reason Stoke was considered so unpromising in the English Premier League is the open stadium, the wind that would blow on the field. “Can he win on a rainy Wednesday afternoon at Stoke?” Sir Alex famously asked. No team was guaranteed a EPL win at Stoke (that is while Stoke were at EPL). And yet, Rhaegar risks everything, lets his father suspect him of treason, for a win in a tournament.
Why? Let’s look at the opponents he faced: Brandon Stark. Whom he might have approached and promised an unprecedented attention and elevation to House Stark, if only Brandon lets his jouvelin shake or aim poorly. The outcome of that didn’t make Brandon or House Stark happy, but Rhaegar didn’t lie: for the first time ever the House was brought in spotlight when Rhaegar placed the blue roses into Lyanna Stark’s lap. Brandon is not known as a great warrior, but even if he was, I am saying, Rhaegar had a way of ‘bribing’ him.
Royne is conveniently alive both on the show and in the books. He was a decent tournament fighter (see Wiki). Rhaegar wasn’t assured a victory against him, there is no indication of unfair agreement between the two, but the fact that he is alive might mean that we are soon to find out: Rhaegar made him an offer he couldn’t refuse.
Then, Rhaegar faced three members of Kingsguard and Arthur himself. If Arthur helps Rhaegar the latter is certain. The other three – who is better than Arthur to tell Rhaegar about their weaknesses or outright ‘bribe’ them?
The summary of what I am saying: Rhaegar needed Arthur to win the tournament and having Arthur convinced was sufficient. Rhaegar knew with a decent likelihood that the tournament is his once he had Arthur’s cooperation.
The traditional view is: at the tourney, Rhaegar and Lyanna somehow meet. It just so happens that Rhaegar wins the tourney – nobody could have predicted it. He crowns Lyanna the queen of love and beauty. Very romantic. Very sad.
My claim: Very not GRRM-like. Keep in mind:
My suggestion is: Rhaegar was very much into (a harsher word would be ‘obsessed with’) prophecies and somehow felt he must produce three heirs and one of them would be The-Prince-that-was-Promised. The conversation between Barristan, Daenerys and Jorah, that started with Arthur etc., it comes to:
Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him.
Ask yourself: do you know a better theory that ties Ser Arthur Dayne with whatever Rhaegar found in the scrolls? I don’t.