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Recently I posted on Valyrian steel being 'alive' in some sense and the swords being actors, not mere passive tools. Things are almost ready for another major plot prediction, we just need to look at behavior of legendary swords in myths. At https://fractal-affinity.com/got/c18/ActiveSwords.html I am trying to organize my thoughts on mythological weapons in context of ASoIaF. Brief study of the subject will reveal that:
We will need the last item: unexpected failures of weapons. For example, 'The reason behind Hrunting's failing against Grendel's Mother has been a point of much scholarly debate.' Another observation:
In case of Jon and Mormonts we have a well-known exchange of a weapon: the older Mormont grants Longclaw to Jon. In another scene we see Jon and Jorah talking about it. The most interesting question, in my view, is: what does Longclaw think about all this? Whom does it belong in its own mind? Who is his master: Jon and Jorah?
Here is the actual prediction now. At a recent post I discussed something that becomes rather obvious if you watch scenes between Jon – Dany and Dany – Jorah in Season 7: Jorah becomes exceedingly jealous of Jon and bears hidden hatred towards him. At the Reddit post, or the version on my (terribly designed) site https://fractal-affinity.com/got/c18/JorahAndJon.html I argued that Jorah will attack Jon. Maybe cowardly, from behind, but most likely Jorah will challenge Jon for a duel. The winner 'wins' Daenerys' heart, if not hand. There is a precedent of Jon challenging Ramsey for a duel, so Jon will accept.
Another element of the prediction is an unexpected behavior of Longclaw. Somehow it won't work or work not as intended by whoever is holding it. I can't say whom it 'betrays': Jon or Jorah, because I don't know what Longclaw actually thinks. Here are Jorah's grievances against Jon:
The following is how I would write the scene. 'Good' people won, at least a temporary victory, and are celebrating. (Such that Jon's final chapter is also a feast, like his first one.) Jorah fought heroically. Jorah, maybe after some excessive celebration, feeling his action is no longer threatening the outcome of the war, challenges Jon for a duel. Jorah feels perfectly justified due to the reasons above and believes he is actually helping Daenerys by eliminating her potential rival. Jon accepts the challenge. Jorah demands that he fights with Longclaw. Jorah is much better fighter and he has Longclaw, so a reader thinks: advantage Jorah. And it is – Jon is defeated. Jorah goes for a coup de grace, but somehow misses. I don't think the show will actually explain that Longclaw is behaving strangely, it may be just a puzzled look Jorah casts on the sword, some minor hint like camera showing Dawn at the scene of Jon's birth. In the end Jon is mortally wounded, but not dead yet. (The significance of that we will discuss next time.)
I expect Longclaw to take Jon's side. It wouldn't necessarily result in breaking laws of physics, like resisting Jorah's thrust. The central premise is 'swords have minds' and thus it could be subtle mind-influence from Longclaw to Jorah or sending an unexpected emotion to his mind. As usual with GRRM, magic wouldn't have radical effect on the outcome. Jorah was planning his actions longer, feels more passionate, fights better, and so he wins. Magic though brings infinitesimal deviations to outcomes that might seem meaningless (Jon mortally wounded vs Jon dead), but build up and lead to world-changing consequences.
TLDR: Jorah attacks Jon; Longclaw has the final word in this battle.
Original publication date: November 1, 2018
The links discussing philosophy of Nietzsche and Schopenhauer in the context of Valyrian steel and its implications for Targaryens and Jon-Jorah-Daenerys are: